America's Real Estate Freeze: The Home Turnover Crisis Shaking the Nation

America's real estate market is officially on ice — and it's a chill homeowners haven't felt in nearly 30 years. New analysis reveals an astonishing collapse in U.S. home turnover, as record prices and rising mortgage rates paralyze millions across the country. For rate predictions, see our 2026 forecast.

The Numbers Don't Lie: A 30-Year Low

According to Redfin's latest analysis, just 28 out of every 1,000 homes changed hands from January to September 2025, the lowest rate since at least the 1990s. This dramatic slump is more than statistics; it's a story of families stuck and dreams deferred.

To put this in perspective, the turnover rate this year is down roughly 30% compared to the average since 2012. This isn't a temporary dip—it's a fundamental shift in how Americans view homeownership and mobility.

The Perfect Storm: Three Forces Colliding

The housing freeze isn't caused by one factor—it's a perfect storm of three converging crises that have paralyzed the market.

1. The Rate Lock Trap: Homeowners Frozen in Place

Homeowners locked in historically low mortgage rates back in 2020–2021 have zero incentive to sell and face today's punishing payments. If you bought a $400,000 home in 2020 at 2.5%, your payment was $1,520/month. Today at 6.75%, that same home would cost $2,700/month—a $1,180 monthly increase.

The result? A home-buying stagnation that started in 2022 refuses to thaw, as borrowing costs remain painfully high. Compare current mortgage rates to see how much higher payments have become.

2. The Job Market Collapse: Fewer Reasons to Move

For one thing, the job market has slowed to a crawl. In August 2025, employers added a mere 22,000 jobs, plunging from July's 79,000 and well below expectations. Government hiring data is missing due to the shutdown, but payroll firm ADP paints a grim picture: the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September.

Major layoffs at Microsoft, General Motors, Amazon, and Target add to the gloom. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment remains elevated, and job mobility has stalled. It's little wonder Americans are anxious – and that means fewer reasons to pack up and move.

3. Sky-High Prices: The Affordability Crisis

Even if rates ease, sky-high house prices are locking out millions. The median sale price for a previously owned home has soared 53% in just six years. Many Americans, faced with huge debts and uncertain incomes, simply can't make the leap.

According to the Federal Reserve, housing affordability has reached its worst level in decades. The ratio of median home price to median household income has exploded, making homeownership impossible for millions of first-time buyers.

The Economist's Take: "People Are Stuck"

Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's chief economist, sums it up perfectly: "It's not healthy for the economy that people are staying put. If people are stuck, it's reflective of how the economy is stuck."

This isn't just about real estate. When people can't move for better jobs, when families can't upgrade to larger homes, when retirees can't downsize—the entire economy suffers. Job mobility decreases. Productivity stalls. Consumer spending weakens.

Fairweather continues: "We're in a low-hire, low-fire labor market and I think this goes hand in hand with that." The housing freeze and job market slowdown are interconnected—each reinforcing the other. For more on affordability, read our affordability crisis analysis.

The Ripple Effects: Dreams Deferred

The housing freeze creates a cascade of consequences:

Regional Impact: Which Markets Are Hardest Hit?

The housing freeze isn't uniform across the country. Some regions are hit harder than others. Check out our state-specific guides to understand your local market:

What's Next? When Will the Freeze Thaw?

The housing freeze looks set to persist. Here's what needs to happen to thaw the market:

What Should You Do Now?

If you're thinking about buying or selling in this frozen market, here's what experts recommend:

The Bottom Line

America's housing market is frozen at levels not seen since the 1990s. The combination of locked-in low rates, job market slowdown, and sky-high prices has created a perfect storm that's paralyzing buyers and sellers alike.

As Daryl Fairweather from Redfin notes, this isn't just a real estate problem—it's an economy problem. When people are stuck, the entire nation suffers.

The question isn't whether the freeze will thaw, but when. And for millions of Americans waiting on the sidelines, that answer can't come soon enough.