Mortgage Rates Hit 6.19%: Lock Now or Wait for Fed Meeting on October 28?
Mortgage rates just dropped to 6.19% - the lowest level in 13 months! But with the Fed meeting in just 4 days (October 28-29), should you lock your rate NOW or wait for a potential further drop? Here's everything you need to know to make the right decision.
⏰ Fed Decision in 4 Days - Get Your Rate Quote NOW
Compare rates from 50+ lenders. Lock at 6.19% today or wait - your choice. Free, no obligation.
Compare Rates from 50+ Lenders →📊 Current Mortgage Rates (October 24, 2025)
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is now 6.19% according to 50+ lenders - down from a peak of 7.00% in January 2025.
30-Year Fixed
6.19%
↓ Lowest in 13 months
Down from 7.00% peak (January 2025)
15-Year Fixed
5.50%
↓ Down 0.18% this week
Save $200+/month vs 30-year
FHA 30-Year
5.74%
Best for credit 580-680
VA 30-Year
5.88%
$0 down for veterans
Jumbo 30-Year
6.36%
Loans over $806,500
🏛️ The Fed Meeting: What to Expect (October 28-29)
⚠️ KEY FACT
The Federal Reserve meets October 28-29, 2025. There's a 97% probability they'll cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% (from 4.00-4.25% to 3.75-4.00%).
What This Means for Mortgage Rates
✅ Best Case Scenario
- • Fed cuts 0.25% as expected
- • Signals more cuts coming in December
- • Mortgage rates could drop to 5.90-6.00% by mid-November
- • Potential savings: $50-80/month on $400K loan
❌ Worst Case Scenario
- • Fed pauses cuts due to inflation concerns
- • Signals fewer cuts ahead
- • Mortgage rates could jump back to 6.40-6.60%
- • Potential cost: $80-120/month MORE on $400K loan
📊 Most Likely Scenario
- • Fed cuts 0.25% as planned
- • Cautious language about future cuts
- • Mortgage rates stay in 6.10-6.30% range through November
- • Minimal change from today's 6.19%
🎯 Expert Recommendation
If you're closing in the next 30-45 days, lock your rate NOW at 6.19%. The risk of rates going UP (if Fed disappoints) is greater than the potential reward of waiting for a 0.10-0.20% drop. Get pre-approved today to secure this rate.
Lock Your Rate at 6.19% Today →🤔 Should YOU Lock Now or Wait? (5-Question Framework)
Use this framework to decide. Answer these 5 questions:
1️⃣ When Are You Closing?
Closing in 30-45 days
→ LOCK NOW. You can't risk rates going up before closing.
Closing in 60-90 days
→ WAIT until after Fed meeting. You have time to see if rates drop further.
Just starting to shop
→ Get pre-approved now, but don't lock yet. Monitor rates weekly.
2️⃣ What's Your Risk Tolerance?
Low Risk (Can't afford rate increase)
→ LOCK NOW. 6.19% is already excellent. Don't gamble.
High Risk (Can handle volatility)
→ WAIT. Potential upside of 5.90-6.00% worth the risk for you.
3️⃣ What's Your Current Rate (If Refinancing)?
Current rate 7.00%+
→ LOCK IMMEDIATELY. You'll save $200+/month. Don't wait.
Current rate 6.50-6.99%
→ LOCK NOW. Savings are solid at 6.19%.
Current rate under 6.50%
→ WAIT. Refinancing may not be worth it yet. Monitor through December.
4️⃣ How Much Would a 0.25% Drop Save You?
Monthly Payment Difference (6.19% vs 5.94%)
- • $300K loan: $45/month savings
- • $400K loan: $60/month savings
- • $500K loan: $75/month savings
If these savings are worth the risk of rates going UP instead, then wait. Otherwise, lock now.
5️⃣ What Does Your Lender Offer?
Float-down option available
→ LOCK NOW with float-down. Best of both worlds - protected if rates rise, can drop if rates fall.
No float-down option
→ Follow the other 4 criteria above. Consider shopping other lenders who offer float-down.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2025?
Possible but not guaranteed. If the Fed cuts rates 2-3 more times (December 2025, early 2026), rates could reach 5.75-5.90% by Q1 2026. But if inflation stays stubborn, rates may stay in the 6-6.5% range through 2025.
What happens to mortgage rates if the Fed does not cut on October 29?
Rates would likely jump 0.20-0.40% immediately (back to 6.40-6.60%). This is why locking now at 6.19% protects you from this risk.
Should I refinance at 6.19% if my current rate is 6.75%?
Yes, if you plan to stay in your home for 3+ years. You'll save approximately $127/month on a $400K loan, which pays for closing costs in 18-24 months.
How long does a rate lock last?
Typically 30-60 days. If you need longer, you may pay a fee (0.125-0.25% of loan amount per 15-day extension). Ask your lender about float-down options.
Can I lock a rate before finding a house?
No, you need a purchase contract to lock a rate. But you CAN get pre-approved now, which gives you a rate estimate and speeds up the process once you find a home.
What credit score do I need for 6.19%?
Generally 740+ for the best rates. With 680-739, expect 0.25-0.50% higher. Below 680, consider FHA loans (5.74% with 580+ credit).
Are ARM rates lower than fixed rates right now?
Yes! 5/1 ARM rates are around 5.35-5.50% (0.70% lower than fixed). But they adjust after 5 years, so only consider if you plan to sell or refinance within 5 years.
Will rates drop after the election?
Unlikely to be election-driven. Rates follow Fed policy and economic data, not politics. The Fed meeting on Oct 28-29 is more important than the November election.
🎯 Ready to Lock Your Rate at 6.19%?
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